Onam : Mahabali and Vamana

Onam is a festival associated with the story of Vamanadeva who came down for Mahabali. It is celebrated for about ten days culminating on the Dwadashi in the suhkla paksha in the month of Bhadrapada in the Kerala hindu calendar.

 

Being the grandson of Prahalada, there is no doubt that Bali grew to be an able and righteous king. He, by lineage, was an asura.

He had conquered all the worlds and was also gaining immense power due to the numerous yagna he performed under the guidance of the asura guru Sri Shukracharya.  Shukracharya adviced him to conduct Ashvamedha yagna (somewhere I heard it was 100 Ashwamedha yagnas) which will make him the ruler for ever. The leader of devas, Indra, was not able to win devaloka back from the Daitya king, he sought guidance from eth deva guru Sri Brihaspathi who in turn asked him to seek help from Aditi, devamata and rishi Kasyapa’s wife. Aditi prayed to Mahavishnu to help her son by destroying Mahabali. Mahavishnu told Aditi that Mahabali is a very righteous king and there is no reason for him to be defeated as he will be an ideal king for the worlds. He can only be defeated if he is cursed by his guru. He blessed Aditi to be his mother when he takes the next avatara.

Mahavishnu was born to Rishi Kasyapa and Aditi and was named Vamana. He started learning and mastering the Vedas very early in his life. He is traditionally depicted as a short dark person. Vamana reached the yagnashala around the time when Mahabali was about to complete his yaga and was giving gifts the brahmana’s sought. Vamanadeva wanted to test Mahabali’s resolve, shradha and break his pride. He asks Mahabali for 3 steps of land measured by his feet. Mahabali was surprised and asked why don’t you ask for more, for which Vamanadeva replied, for who three steps are not enough nothing in the world can satisfy him. Shukracharya sensed that Vamana was Mahavishnu himself and dissuaded Mahabali from giving the boon. Mahabali said if it is Mahavishnu himself, who am I to give him anything ? All of this is given by him and what good deeds did I do to earn such a blessing.  Sukhracharya even went and sat inside the spout of the kamandala of the king, to prevent him from giving the boon (traditionally in India offer was always confirmed by taking some water in ones hand and give it to the reciever’s hand).

Mahabali trying removing the obstruction in the process injuring the guru’s eyes and hence earning the curse of his guru. Guru Sukhracharya from then on is depicted with an injured eye. With the first step Vamana covered of Bhooloka and with the next step he covered the devaloka unable to keep his third step he looked at Mahabali, who presented his head (symbolizing the destruction of his ego and pride). Mahabali lost his lordship of Bhooloka and devaloka because of his pride but Vamandeva, ever compassionate one, asked Mahabali for any boon he seeks. Mahabali only wanted to be with the Lord himself!

Mahabali was sent to Sutala (Patala as some refer) to rule over it, along with his father Virochana. This place was supposed to be without disease, pain and full of happiness and joy. Hence I do not believe Mahabali was sent to Sutala as a punishment. Mahabali asked his Lord to allow him to return to his people once a year during the monsoon, just like how Ayodhya decorated itself with lamps, Mahabali is welcomed with colourful pookolam. And at the center of the pookolam Trikarappan is kept.

Out of love, when Mahabali reached Sutala, Vamanadeva became the guard of the new land for Mahabali. Mahalaskhmi herself came down and requested Mahabali to let her stay there so that she could be with her Lord.

This is a festival celebrated from time immemorial and even today’s Tamilnadu used to celebrate it too but was lost in the last millennium due to the brutal violence of the invading armies who wanted to annihilate the belief systems of the native people.

Additional points to ponder:

Bali or Mahabali was the son of Virochana and grandson of Prahalada. Prahalada was the son of Hiranyakashipu who in turn was born to Diti and Kasyapa rishi. It is very fascinating that Mahavishnu took two avatars within such a short span of time and that too for the bhakts of the same family!

Vamana was the son of Rishi Kasyapa and Aditi, hence becomes the great grand uncle of Mahabali.

Trikarappan is the lord who took three steps i.e Sri Vamana

Traditionally Vamana was depicted as short dark brahmana and Bali with his tuft of hair and janeu.

Inca world worshipped Viracocha as the bringer of civilization 😉

Image Sources :

By Unknown author - http://www.philamuseum.org/collections/permanent/97348.html?mulR=732 1, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=9500061

 

This post is an outcome of the thoughts from two of my sources of inspiration to explore Indian history, TrueIndology (who is in exile in twitter @TIinExile) and T S Krishnan (@tskrishnan). Though I have been enamored by history and in my own way trying to reconcile what I see, experience and was taught in school. This is my humble tribute to these masters.

God of Sprint, Usain Bolt

Our next stop is the North America continent. For decades US held the hegemony in this sport particularly these events with an occasional burst of genius challenging its hold. On top of it this sport was maligned by doping scandals. Even the champions were not immune to this bug. This sport was considered the pinnacle of human speed and was slowly losing its appeal and it desperately needed someone who could bring back its glamour and establish the trust it had lost.

You may have guessed by now I am talking about the shortest sprint race categories and the sprinter who revived the respect of the whole athletic fraternity is none other than the 6 feet 5 inches tall, Jamaican God of sprint Usain St Leo Bolt.

Just to start off, the Sprinting God had entered the Olympics scene in 2004 and lost in the first round in his pet event 200 mts! Even by then he was an athlete of repute, 18-year-old newly minted professional. Looking back, we understand that he was rush in and his injury adding to the trouble. Good that happened, the next four years forged the greatest of all sprinters including winning a challenge with his coach that led to his entry into the 100 meters event. That is another story of legendary proportion!

Though Bolt was favourite for the 2008 Olympics no one was prepared for the display of craftsmanship, supreme confidence, great showmanship and lovable irreverence all in one package. He was one of the slowest off the block in the 100 meter event yet went to win the race with a world record time while having time to look back, celebrate and may be even sit down have his leisurely tea!! And you should have seen his confidence just before the start of the race. Every athlete was serious as they approached their blocks. Not Bolt, he had time to play around with the kid standing behind his starting block.

This was good enough to kindle the world’s attention toward, Bolt, sprints and the Olympic games. He then went on to break the decade old, nearly untouchable 200-meter record of Michael Johnson. That was a treat to watch with Johnson commenting live. What followed was the formality of the completing the triple medal by winning the 4*100 relay gold. 2008 showed the quintessential Bolt. He held the baton for the third leg but nearly ran till the finish line. Such was his enthusiasm, infectious.

By the end of 2008 Olympics a new start was born, the fruition of a longing for a pure genius, entertainer who is loved by millions, a kind and gentle person who will not only win but break records without breaking anybody’s heart (except for the competitors, may be). The world could not have enough of Bolt and he kept obliging. The next was the Berlin World Championships. World wanted more action, greater destruction of his own records and magic. Bolt simply got up, conjured and mesmerized. There was no stopping Bolt from there on. He was the favourite even on days when he was not at his best injured. He did lose races but that is beside the point. It only shows the respect, resolve the great man had.

He always delivered on the world championship and never slipped on the Olympic stage. His position as the legend of the sporting world was reaffirmed in London and cemented in Rio Olympics. In his own word – was a legend in 2012 and immortal in the 2016.  This was how he said he will be described after winning the races, before the respective Olympic games started.  He was sublime, beauty to watch and crowd always rooted for him. The 2016 Rio Olympic 100 meters final had me in knots and first 50 meters was as good as lost for the Bolt, then comes the kicker, I personally went through a range of emotions within those few minutes. Posting the race link for your pleasure!

I will sign off with a beautiful compilation of all of Usain Bolt’s Olympic finals with a bonus video of his first Olympic race.

End of Part 2

- to be continued, I promise we will move to a different part of the world and to a totally different sport to conclude the series. It will be my tribute to a very humble, quiet and a gentle superstar who is loved well beyond his national borders. Keep guessing, will come back to reveal the name!

Senna

I am starting a 3-part series dedicated to my favourite sport stars. Starting off with a South American Superstar!

There was boy born with a silver spoon during the 60s, started to drive the jeep in his father’s farm at a very young age, entered his first kart competition by 13 that too on pole position! He did not finish the race as he collided with a fellow driver. He was very devout Christian, loved live to the fullest, never gave an inch, stood up to powerful people when he was wronged, never shy of a fight but always there to help a human being.

I am talking about the Brazilian F1 legend Ayrton Senna da Silva or more popularly known as Senna. My fascination towards him started exactly 26 years ago. The first time ever I heard of his name was when I was leaving to either Tirupur or Coimbatore from Trichy. Early in the morning, with my dad, we boarded a bus and I bought a newspaper to read during the journey. What caught my eye was an article about a formula 1 driver who had lost his life! My love for Ayrton Senna started with the news of his death. This was also incidentally my first brush with F1 and I started following it only a few years later. I hope to pay him a small tribute on his death anniversary.

It is my humble opinion that there was never a racing driver who made you believe that he can win if he was given a steering wheel and four wheels! His mere presence was enough to rattle his opponents. He is a three-time F1 championship winner, held record for most pole starts for a very long time before Schumacher with his blazing Ferrari overtook him in the mid-2000s. The one record he will be proud of and the envy of every other F1 driver is the most wins at the Monaco Grand Prix (GP). It is standing till date. The increase in the number of races in a season, the total change in technology, design of the cars somehow in my opinion is making the races more about the cars and less about its drivers. Nowadays we do not get the raw talent of the driver displayed in F1. Senna was the last of the classical drivers relying more on themselves and less on their machine. Seems enticing? I will leave you with a few nuggets of his racing life.

In his debut year,1984, Senna got his first podium finish in his F1 career at the Monaco GP chasing Alain Prost (his arch rival) in rain! This is as romantic as it can get for any Senna Fan. Senna ruled the Monaco GP, was the rain master and always showed he owned the car and not the other way! In this race he started 13^th and was catching up Alain Prost at more than 4 seconds per lap when at the 31^st lap the race was unfairly stopped. If it had continued for a few laps Senna’s first podium finish may have been a win!

Two other races that I can recall for their sheer drama are the 1986 Spanish GP where Nigel Mansell pitted about 10 laps to go and nearly made up the lost time by driving couple of seconds faster than the race leader Senna. But this was a testament to Senna’s raw driving skills. It may be easy to catch up with him by throwing a superior strategy/vehicle/ fresh tyres/ kitchen sink at him but overtaking him is totally different deal. Senna won the race by 0.014s !

The other race is the 1991 Brazilian GP. This was his first and only home win and to add to that he won the race with a gear box problem. He drove his car without the 3^rd, 4^th and the 5^th gears. This is why I repeated say Senna was more than just the car he was driving. Look at the pain in his face as he tries to lift his winner’s trophy. He was exhausted, had cramps and had to be driven to the podium in a medical car.

In 1994 Senna switched to Williams and wanted to regain his world title. During the qualifiers at San Marino Roland Ratzenberger lost his life and Rubens Barrichello was very seriously injured. He went to the hospital to meet Rubens, talked with his arch rival Prost to set up a drivers’ association with a focus on drivers’ safety. Finally, when Senna’s body was removed from his car, he had two flags which he wanted to wave when he won, one was Brazilian and the other was an Austrian flag in Roland’s honour. Such was his love for the sport and confidence in himself. That was the last death on the F1 racing track and it set off a very serious rework to increase driver safety. The worst accident in the recent years I remember is of another Brazilian Filipe Massa. But I believe Senna gave his life to make sure no one else suffers his fate.

There is an amazing movie about him with haunting music on him titled Senna. Even if you are hardened Schumi fan like one of my friends’ you will still love it and admire Senna ! enjoy the trailer and is also available on Netflix.

Genius – Maverick – Superstar – Legend – Senna !! Beautifully described.

Test Test Test ? A glimpse into the screening and diagnostic tests' world

Today I will like to discuss about the most popular phrase in the current COVID 19 situation “Test Test Test!” and academically deliberate is this with an intent to expand our perspective. There are more variables that have to be taken into consideration before taking decisions at a city/state/national level.

Will testing more people help us and will it optimally support our healthcare system without adding too much burden? This is the question we will be exploring, I shall present my point of view and let you decide. This article will not delve on the process to identify a gold standard test for any disease, but more on the methodology &math, which will help decision makers (and common folks like us to evaluate and critically discuss the decisions thus made).  

Before we get into the details let us get a few basic definitions listed sourced from NCBI (National Center of Biotechnology Information) link is at the end of the article:

Patient: Positive for disease (has the disease)

Healthy: Negative for disease (does not have the disease)

Outcomes of the tests can be categorized in the following buckets:

True positive (TP) = the number of cases correctly identified as patient

False positive (FP) = the number of cases incorrectly identified as patient

True negative (TN) = the number of cases correctly identified as healthy

False negative (FN) = the number of cases incorrectly identified as healthy

Accuracy: The accuracy of a test is its ability to differentiate the patient and healthy cases correctly. To estimate the accuracy of a test, we should calculate the proportion of true positive and true negative in all evaluated cases. Mathematically, this can be stated as:

Accuracy=(TP+TN)/(TP+TN+FP+FN)

Sensitivity: The sensitivity of a test is its ability to determine the patient cases correctly. To estimate it, we should calculate the proportion of true positive in the patient cases.

Sensitivity=TP/(TP+FN)

Specificity: The specificity of a test is its ability to determine the healthy cases correctly. To estimate it, we should calculate the proportion of true negative in the healthy cases.

Specificity=TN/(TN+FP)

Now we all have a common understanding of the terms. Let’s try to get more comfortable with a simplistic example.

Assume there is a city with 1,00,000 people. Of which there are 50% of them are affected by a disease. We also 1,00,000 testing kits for the disease so we are in a condition to test everybody and immediately treat the people who have the disease. Also assume the accuracy of the test is 95%, which we should feel is close to accurate. For the sake of simplicity let us keep both the sensitivity and specificity at the same 95% (this will vary based on tests, more on it later).

This means the following:

50,000 people with disease

50,000 people are healthy

The test kit will accurately identify 95% of the infected people correctly, i.e. 47,500 people out of 50,000 infected people will be identified (by the test as true).

Also, the test will identify 95% of the healthy people correctly too, i.e. 47,500 people out of the 50,000 healthy people.

Let us summarize this in a small table form

	True	False	Total
Positive	47,500	2,500	50,000
Negative	47,500	2,500	50,000

The total positive cases will tell us how many people will be treated by the healthcare system because the test was positive.

Now let us see what happens if the infection rate is 20% instead of 50% with the same number of test kits.

	True	False	Total
Positive	19,000	4,000	23,000
Negative	76,000	1,000	77,000

Now we will be treating the 23,000 people who were tested positive, which is about 3,000 (15%) more than the actual count.

Let’s try a higher infection rate, say 80% for the same situation

	True	False	Total
Positive	76,000	1,000	77,000
Negative	19,000	4,000	23,000

Here we will be treating 77,000 people who tested positive, which is 3,000 (3.75%) less than the actual count.

Now let us try to work with a few more variations focusing on the test’s accuracy, infection rate and total positive cases, for the same 1,00,000 people (assuming all of them are tested).

No of people tested	100,000
Test Accuracy	Infection Rate	No of Infected people	No of People whose test was positive (TP +FP)	% deviation from actual infected people	No of healthy people identified as sick (FP) by test
95%	5%	5,000	9,500	90%	4,750
95%	10%	10,000	14,000	40%	4,500
95%	20%	20,000	23,000	15%	4,000
95%	30%	30,000	32,000	7%	3,500
95%	40%	40,000	41,000	3%	3,000
95%	50%	50,000	50,000	0%	2,500
95%	60%	60,000	59,000	-2%	2,000
95%	70%	70,000	68,000	-3%	1,500
95%	80%	80,000	77,000	-4%	1,000
95%	90%	90,000	86,000	-4%	500
90%	5%	5,000	14,000	180%	9,500
90%	10%	10,000	18,000	80%	9,000
90%	30%	30,000	34,000	13%	7,000
90%	50%	50,000	50,000	0%	5,000
90%	80%	80,000	74,000	-8%	2,000
80%	5%	5,000	23,000	360%	19,000
80%	10%	10,000	26,000	160%	18,000
80%	30%	30,000	38,000	27%	14,000
80%	50%	50,000	50,000	0%	10,000
80%	80%	80,000	68,000	-15%	4,000

If we follow the patterns, we will notice that as the infection rate increases the deviation from actual no of infected people. That implies that as the infection level increases in a population, we will be treating a very small % of healthy people identified as sick. This will not be big strain on resources compared to treating the people identified as sick in a low infection % city.

So, is there no reason to test the population or will we have to wait till majority of the population gets the disease? The answer to both the questions is no.

There are different tests for these two scenarios. This is where the distinction between a screening test and a diagnostic test is needed.

A screening test is administered to a large group of people to make sure nobody who is infected is left out. These tests are designed for easy execution and to get the results quickly. to be It has a high sensitivity less focus on its specificity (there by affecting its accuracy). Those cases identified by the test will be taken for further investigation/tests. We can see these kinds of tests outside of the medical world in many places. One good example is the airport security. The objective is to not let any dangerous item to be taken on the flight and we are ready to err on the over detection side.

A diagnostic test is generally a confirmatory test. This can either be the first test or the follow up test after a screening test. This is generally costlier, difficult to administer and may take some time to get the results compared to the screening test. This has very a high level of accuracy (gold standard) than the screening test for the same disease (high sensitivity and specificity).

General differences	Screening Test	Diagnostic test
Objective of the test	Not to miss any infected person	To be sure that only the” true” person has the disease
Start of treatment	Generally followed by investigation or diagnostic test	Usually treatment starts after the test
Ease of administering	Very easy, can be used to test a large group of people in a short time	Not as easy as the screening test. It may sometimes need the patient’s cooperation to be conducted
Duration to get the results	Very quick, sometimes instantaneously	May take sometime
Cost	Very cheap	Costlier than the screening tests

Taking all this information into account, we can come to a conclusion that in an epidemic or pandemic we should take a decision to test the population keeping few other constrains in mind. These are hospitals’ capacity to admit and treat the positive tested cases, cost of medication, panic & mental agony of a person who is wrongly diagnosis etc. Can our doctors treat nearly all of our population assuming they have the disease? No. This is exactly the situation that will happen if we start treating everyone who is tested positive by test with low specificity.

Hence, I prefer a targeted population testing where the probability of an infected person is high compared to a whole population testing. The questions like what is the target population, what are its characteristics etc are best left to the doctors and administrators (the experts in this context). Please share your thoughts with me about this in the comments section. I hope to learn more during the interaction.

The article is too simple to give a view into the complexities of the decision making process. For example the silent (asymptomatic) carriers problem in COVID 19. This is where the community quarantine helps the administrators. We can test the people with symptoms first, next the high risk group which has come into contact with the people with infections followed by anyone who comes into contact with the infected population. Another aspect is who (and how) to treat ? What about the social and economic aspects ?  Just too many things to be considered for taking a decision and also evaluating its effectiveness.

Let me end with a quote, not sure to whom to attribute it, which aptly sums up our power of contribution. 

"This is the time where we can save the world by sitting at home and doing nothing !"

Happy "Saving the world". Stay safe and healthy.  

Referred sources:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4614595/

Thank you for suggesting the Edits C (Aravind)